quadratic risk
On Regression in Extreme Regions
Huet, Nathan, Clémençon, Stephan, Sabourin, Anne
In the classic regression problem, the value of a real-valued random variable $Y$ is to be predicted based on the observation of a random vector $X$, taking its values in $\mathbb{R}^d$ with $d\geq 1$ say. The statistical learning problem consists in building a predictive function $\hat{f}:\mathbb{R}^d\to \mathbb{R}$ based on independent copies of the pair $(X,Y)$ so that $Y$ is approximated by $\hat{f}(X)$ with minimum error in the mean-squared sense. Motivated by various applications, ranging from environmental sciences to finance or insurance, special attention is paid here to the case of extreme (i.e. very large) observations $X$. Because of their rarity, they contribute in a negligible manner to the (empirical) error and the predictive performance of empirical quadratic risk minimizers can be consequently very poor in extreme regions. In this paper, we develop a general framework for regression in the extremes. It is assumed that $X$'s conditional distribution given $Y$ belongs to a non parametric class of heavy-tailed probability distributions. It is then shown that an asymptotic notion of risk can be tailored to summarize appropriately predictive performance in extreme regions of the input space. It is also proved that minimization of an empirical and non asymptotic version of this 'extreme risk', based on a fraction of the largest observations solely, yields regression functions with good generalization capacity. In addition, numerical results providing strong empirical evidence of the relevance of the approach proposed are displayed.
Locally differentially private estimation of nonlinear functionals of discrete distributions
Butucea, Cristina, Issartel, Yann
We study the problem of estimating non-linear functionals of discrete distributions in the context of local differential privacy. The initial data $x_1,\ldots,x_n \in [K]$ are supposed i.i.d. and distributed according to an unknown discrete distribution $p = (p_1,\ldots,p_K)$. Only $\alpha$-locally differentially private (LDP) samples $z_1,...,z_n$ are publicly available, where the term 'local' means that each $z_i$ is produced using one individual attribute $x_i$. We exhibit privacy mechanisms (PM) that are interactive (i.e. they are allowed to use already published confidential data) or non-interactive. We describe the behavior of the quadratic risk for estimating the power sum functional $F_{\gamma} = \sum_{k=1}^K p_k^{\gamma}$, $\gamma >0$ as a function of $K, \, n$ and $\alpha$. In the non-interactive case, we study two plug-in type estimators of $F_{\gamma}$, for all $\gamma >0$, that are similar to the MLE analyzed by Jiao et al. (2017) in the multinomial model. However, due to the privacy constraint the rates we attain are slower and similar to those obtained in the Gaussian model by Collier et al. (2020). In the interactive case, we introduce for all $\gamma >1$ a two-step procedure which attains the faster parametric rate $(n \alpha^2)^{-1/2}$ when $\gamma \geq 2$. We give lower bounds results over all $\alpha$-LDP mechanisms and all estimators using the private samples.
Automated data-driven selection of the hyperparameters for Total-Variation based texture segmentation
Pascal, Barbara, Vaiter, Samuel, Pustelnik, Nelly, Abry, Patrice
Penalized Least Squares are widely used in signal and image processing. Yet, it suffers from a major limitation since it requires fine-tuning of the regularization parameters. Under assumptions on the noise probability distribution, Stein-based approaches provide unbiased estimator of the quadratic risk. The Generalized Stein Unbiased Risk Estimator is revisited to handle correlated Gaussian noise without requiring to invert the covariance matrix. Then, in order to avoid expansive grid search, it is necessary to design algorithmic scheme minimizing the quadratic risk with respect to regularization parameters. This work extends the Stein's Unbiased GrAdient estimator of the Risk of Deledalle et al. to the case of correlated Gaussian noise, deriving a general automatic tuning of regularization parameters. First, the theoretical asymptotic unbiasedness of the gradient estimator is demonstrated in the case of general correlated Gaussian noise. Then, the proposed parameter selection strategy is particularized to fractal texture segmentation, where problem formulation naturally entails inter-scale and spatially correlated noise. Numerical assessment is provided, as well as discussion of the practical issues.
Nonparametric Independence Testing for Small Sample Sizes
This paper deals with the problem of nonparametric independence testing, a fundamental decision-theoretic problem that asks if two arbitrary (possibly multivariate) random variables $X,Y$ are independent or not, a question that comes up in many fields like causality and neuroscience. While quantities like correlation of $X,Y$ only test for (univariate) linear independence, natural alternatives like mutual information of $X,Y$ are hard to estimate due to a serious curse of dimensionality. A recent approach, avoiding both issues, estimates norms of an \textit{operator} in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHSs). Our main contribution is strong empirical evidence that by employing \textit{shrunk} operators when the sample size is small, one can attain an improvement in power at low false positive rates. We analyze the effects of Stein shrinkage on a popular test statistic called HSIC (Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion). Our observations provide insights into two recently proposed shrinkage estimators, SCOSE and FCOSE - we prove that SCOSE is (essentially) the optimal linear shrinkage method for \textit{estimating} the true operator; however, the non-linearly shrunk FCOSE usually achieves greater improvements in \textit{test power}. This work is important for more powerful nonparametric detection of subtle nonlinear dependencies for small samples.
Nonparametric Independence Testing for Small Sample Sizes
Ramdas, Aaditya (Carnegie Mellon University) | Wehbe, Leila (Carnegie Mellon University)
It is also useful for scientific discovery like in neuroscience, like correlation of X, Y only test for (univariate) to see if a stimulus X (say an image) is independent linear independence, natural alternatives like of the brain activity Y (say fMRI) in a relevant part of mutual information of X, Y are hard to estimate the brain. Since detecting nonlinear correlations is much easier due to a serious curse of dimensionality. A recent than estimating a nonparametric regression function (of approach, avoiding both issues, estimates norms of Y onto X), it can be done at smaller sample sizes, with further an operator in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces samples collected for estimation only if an effect is detected (RKHSs). Our main contribution is strong empirical by the hypothesis test. For such situations, correlation evidence that by employing shrunk operators only tests for univariate linear independence, while other when the sample size is small, one can attain an improvement statistics like mutual information that do characterize multivariate in power at low false positive rates. We independence are hard to estimate from data, suffering analyze the effects of Stein shrinkage on a popular from a serious curse of dimensionality. A recent popular test statistic called HSIC (Hilbert-Schmidt Independence approach for this problem (and a related two-sample testing Criterion). Our observations provide insights problem) involve the use of quantities defined in reproducing into two recently proposed shrinkage estimators, kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) - see [Gretton et al., 2006; SCOSE and FCOSE - we prove that SCOSE Harchaoui et al., 2007; Gretton et al., 2005b; 2005a].